188
ACUS11 KWNS 072315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072314
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CST FRI FEB 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ND VICINITY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 072314Z - 080315Z
SUMMARY...NARROW, TRANSIENT BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA VICINITY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION...PER RECENT REPORTS FROM WFO BIS/FGF AND OBSERVATIONAL
IMAGERY, A THIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION
OF SOUTHERN ND, WHICH THE BULK OF DAYTIME GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE
WITH. THIS SNOW BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARC OF
MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AMID A RATHER COLD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTING HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL OVERSPREAD SOME OF
THIS SAME CORRIDOR INTO MID EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
OVER SOUTHEAST MT SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND MAY AID IN PRODUCING ADDITIONAL NARROW BANDS
TOWARDS THE SD BORDER AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVE
INCREASE IN HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FROM 12Z HREF AND 15Z SREF WINTER
GUIDANCE.
..GRAMS.. 02/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46480233 46740075 46799757 46439645 46109649 45809715
45720016 45520178 45590262 46480233
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