042
ACUS11 KWNS 081746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081746
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-082245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN OHIO
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 081746Z - 082245Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTH/NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.03 IN/HOUR APPEAR
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION (WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS) BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF AN INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AMID STRENGTHENING 925-700 MB WINDS.
THIS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL REINFORCE A WEAK WARM-NOSE ALOFT,
AND SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY LIQUID HYDROMETEORS NEAR THE SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
NORTHERN IN/OH, DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S SUGGEST THAT
WET-BULB COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING IS LIKELY AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION. THIS TREND IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IN WITH SOME ASOS/AWOS AND MPING REPORTS
OF FREEZING RAIN NOTED OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12 UTC HREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE
RUNNING 1-3 F TOO COLD COMPARED TO 17 UTC OBSERVATIONS, WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM THESE MEMBERS/HREF
PROBABILITIES MAY BE TOO BULLISH. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS (HRRR/RAP) HAVE CAPTURED SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WELL
AND DEPICT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF AROUND 0.03 IN/HOUR. THESE
SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1 - 0.25 INCH POSSIBLE.
..MOORE.. 02/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 41538171 41628148 41638112 41498087 41158069 40818063
40608068 40508089 40388127 40288194 40258286 40288366
40378450 40558534 40838623 41098637 41498633 41818603
41918551 41828398 41718339 41448268 41418245 41478206
41538171
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