065
ACUS03 KWNS 081912
SWODY3
SPC AC 081911
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST SAT FEB 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW.
..SYNOPSIS
QUASI-ZONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST, A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM BAJA WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND AZ/NM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WHILE MODEST SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
..CENTRAL/WEST TEXAS
A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TX. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 500-700 MB ATOP AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, THE SHALLOW AND WEAK LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
..LEITMAN.. 02/08/2025
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