156
ACUS03 KWNS 090824
SWODY3
SPC AC 090823
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SUN FEB 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD, THOUGH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THOUGH ITS POSITION IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTENT FROM WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST--THE NAM BEING THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HELP TO REINFORCE IT. DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
SOME MUTED HEATING COULD OCCUR SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN WARMER/DRIER AIR
ALOFT.
..CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLDER AIR WILL INTENSIFY.
MID-LEVEL LASE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH TIME AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODEST 400-800 J/KG.
HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY POSITION AND WARM ADVECTION ZONE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A POTENTIAL WARM/DRY LAYER
THAT COULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW, THOUGH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL.
..WENDT.. 02/09/2025
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