744
ACUS03 KWNS 091906
SWODY3
SPC AC 091905
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CST SUN FEB 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES THAT TYPICALLY WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER, MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL VICINITY FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. SOME NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT, IS POSSIBLE, BUT PARCELS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS MOISTURE OWING TO AN
EML/WARM LAYER BETWEEN 925-850 MB, PRECLUDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL REMAIN
MODEST, THOUGH WEAK MUCAPE (GENERALLY LESS THAN 800 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT.
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, MUCH OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL, BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE OVERALL
POOR THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.
..LEITMAN.. 02/09/2025
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