852
FNUS22 KWNS 091916
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST SUN FEB 09 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/09/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1249 AM CST SUN FEB 09 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES (CONUS) ON MONDAY AS THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A POSITIVELY
TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD CONUS BEFORE MERGING WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW.
AS THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF THESE WAVES APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RAMP UP AS COMPARED
TO SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS (NEAR
20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 LIKELY). ERC PERCENTILES IN THIS
AREA ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH-ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE POTENTIAL. SPECIFICALLY FOR MONDAY, THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
(AIDED BY ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH), THEN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY STAY SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, DIURNAL
HEATING MAY SUPPORT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO
THE TEENS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.
AT THIS POINT, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
MID-TO-HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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