174
ACUS03 KWNS 100805
SWODY3
SPC AC 100804
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CST MON FEB 10 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE SABINE VALLEY VICINITY INTO FAR WESTERN
ALABAMA.
..SYNOPSIS
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ARKLATEX MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA
PRECIPITATION, LIKELY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL BE ONGOING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH FRONTAL POSITION
AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR LATER IN THE
DAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST, LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
GULF COAST. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE
MORNING, STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SABINE VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE
BASED. STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY OCCASIONALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE 50-60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HOWEVER, FRONT-PARALLEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO STORM
INTERACTIONS AND LITTLE SURGE IN THE LINE. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. BUOYANCY WILL DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT STRONGER FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY
COMPENSATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP INHIBITION MINIMAL EVEN
INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS
WOULD SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR
TWO. THE LINEAR FORCING FROM THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR DOES NOT
APPEAR PROBABLE GIVEN THE WARMER LAYERS ALOFT AND THE ARRIVAL OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING DURING TH EARLY/MID EVENING.
..WENDT.. 02/10/2025
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