086
ACUS01 KWNS 110532
SWODY1
SPC AC 110531
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST MON FEB 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM MT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN THIS
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
EVEN SO, SURFACE RESPONSE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AS
SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE PLAINS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AIR MASS (COLD FRONT) EXTENDING ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AIR MASS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO
LIFT NORTH UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, AND MODIFIED GULF AIR MAY
NOT SPREAD INLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. FOR THESE REASONS
IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER, AND THIS SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF EACH EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, MODULATED BY
THE LLJ INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR. WHILE THE STRONGEST
ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL, AT THIS TIME IT'S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE HAIL, THUS
PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW/WEINMAN.. 02/11/2025
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