635
ACUS11 KWNS 111950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111949
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-112345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 111949Z - 112345Z
SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. SIMILAR BANDS AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION/SNOW BAND DEVELOPING FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA INTO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. RECENT SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM CENTRAL VA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.5 MILE SUGGEST MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE ONGOING. THIS
BAND IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM-AIR
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 925-700 MB LAYER AND MAY
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. ADDITIONAL BANDING IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE - AND THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD - MIGRATES INTO THE REGION AND TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MD AND DE. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PEAK ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA
DURING THE 21-00 UTC PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THIS REGION REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING, DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S SUGGEST
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
..MOORE.. 02/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39697503 39597727 39497808 39297861 39027876 38647871
38157822 37727772 37477737 37357681 37327624 37597546
37947527 38287504 38927472 39397424 39607435 39667473
39697503
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