580
ACUS11 KWNS 120809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120808
LAZ000-TXZ000-120915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120808Z - 120915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL,
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR LAREDO NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWEST OF
VICTORIA TO NEAR COLLEGE STATION. THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS LOCATED
TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE RAP HAS MUCAPE VARYING FROM AROUND
500 J/KG IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN SOUTH TEXAS. AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. MOST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT HAVE A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. THIS COULD SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED CORES, WITH HAIL
POSSIBLE. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES, SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE MARGINALLY
SEVERE GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 02/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29239601 28519726 28309777 28319806 28439815 28759808
29459760 30319671 31089569 31789456 32109386 32199334
32219289 32139262 31899240 31509247 31109280 30819317
30539368 29989481 29239601
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