088
ACUS03 KWNS 120822
SWODY3
SPC AC 120821
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS
AND MID-SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. LATE
IN THE PERIOD, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE SABINE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE RED RIVER REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO MID-SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, BUT
WARM AIR ALOFT LEADS TO LESS CERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING
SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL POTENTIALLY PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER, MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL
STORM INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. SMALL
HAIL MAY OCCUR, BUT THE COVERAGE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS
TOO UNCERTAIN FOR UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 02/12/2025
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