892
ACUS11 KWNS 121737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121736
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-122000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 121736Z - 122000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER, AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA.
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS NORTHERN LA/MS. A
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS, AL, AND GA.
THE EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND POCKETS OF
HEATING DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH OVER 40 KT AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL MS, AND A PORTION OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL.
INITIALLY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF TX AND INTO WESTERN LA TODAY. THIS AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE, WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH SUPPORTING A WIND, TORNADO, AND ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE,
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO WESTERN
AL. EFFECTIVE SRH TO AROUND 300 M2/S2 THROUGH 00Z ALONG WITH A DEEP
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A SUGGEST A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR ALREADY SHOW DEEPENING
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST LA, AND THIS REGIME MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE SUPERCELL RISK AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 02/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32898993 33098910 33238832 33278764 33188749 33028732
32608723 32178724 31778749 31578773 31288833 30948914
30449015 30259092 30209196 30139278 30189331 30349359
30639371 31019370 31249358 31809257 32479116 32898993
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