807
ACUS03 KWNS 121921
SWODY3
SPC AC 121919
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS
AND MID-SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER-MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z. ISOLATED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE, BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL THREAT.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS 60F DEWPOINTS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE AR/LA BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE,
MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AND
NO MARGINAL RISK APPEARS WARRANTED.
..BENTLEY.. 02/12/2025
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