000
ACUS11 KWNS 122312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122311
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...6...
VALID 122311Z - 130045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5, 6 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT,
ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CROSS/REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG IT. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR,
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE CONDUCTIVE TO LOW-LEVEL ROTATION,
ESPECIALLY NEAR/ALONG THE WAVY WEST/EAST-ORIENTED WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM SIMPSON COUNTY, MS TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY, AL.
DISCRETE AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN CONTINUE TO
REGENERATE ACROSS EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHEAST MS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR EVENTUALLY SUSTAINING A LONGER-LIVED TORNADO
AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE VORTICITY-ENRICHED WARM FRONT. OVERALL SETUP,
WITH PEAK STP HAVING INCREASED TO A 3 AS OF 22Z, SHOULD FAVOR
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PER EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, AS STORMS MOVE NORTH OF THE 65-66 F ISODROSOTHERM, THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH. SURFACE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS LA ARE SLIGHTLY VEERED AND MODULATING TO SOME EXTENT
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
..GRAMS.. 02/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31109067 31898980 32218923 32268857 32268711 32168681
31958668 31688672 31578694 31168782 30768868 30578947
30609048 30749082 31109067
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