699
ACUS03 KWNS 130831
SWODY3
SPC AC 130830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY WITHIN THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MAKE QUICK PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY, ALL
THE WHILE DEEPENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
..SOUTHEAST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE DURING MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE MID/UPPER 70S F APPEAR PROBABLE.
ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHETHER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY WHILE THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE NAM LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD
LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO
THREAT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO
SURGE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INTENSIFICATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WOULD QLCS TORNADOES. WITH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
EXTENT, BUOYANCY SHOULD LESSEN. HOWEVER, THE 50-65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WOULD PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS EVEN WITH MORE
MUTED/SHALLOW CONVECTION.
..EAST TEXAS/SABINE VALLEY
A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, SOUTH OF THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW. UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FARTHER EAST. STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS, MOST LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO
OCCUR. WITH TIME AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL ASCENT, ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
..WENDT.. 02/13/2025
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