623
ACUS01 KWNS 131619
SWODY1
SPC AC 131619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1019 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA......
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
..SOUTHEAST
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
THIS MORNING, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT AN ILL DEFINED SECONDARY TRIPLE
POINT LOW EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER EAST-CENTRAL GA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW OFF THE FL COAST WHILE
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE SC LOWCOUNTRY BEFORE ARCING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC AND NC COASTS. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THIS WARM SECTOR, EXTENDING FROM THE SAVANNAH GA REGION
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE APALACHICOLA REGION. MODEST BUOYANCY EXISTS
AHEAD OF THIS LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GA, WITH MUCAPE IN AND AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG REGION.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXTENDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LINE AND
OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH AND THE MID/LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. AS
A RESULT, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MODEST, WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PEAKING/HAVING ALREADY PEAKED.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT A BRIEF TORNADO IS STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
TOWARDS CENTRAL CA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS
BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. AS THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WHILE MID-LEVEL
COLD-AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN 500-MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -22 TO -25
DEG C RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION, WITH
MODEST BUOYANCY ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME DEEPER, MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT ROTATION WITHIN ANY DEEPER
UPDRAFTS, YIELDING A LOCALIZED WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
..15_OWS.. 02/13/2025
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