236
ACUS03 KWNS 131922
SWODY3
SPC AC 131921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST
TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
12Z SUNDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHEAST
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS SURGE NORTH OFF OF THE
GULF. AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPANDS WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, A LARGE
REGION OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY MARK THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL SURGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE MS/TN BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT,
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE) WILL
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, FORCING SHOULD
BE WEAK ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
SEVERE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM
EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A CONFLUENT
REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. EVENTUALLY, LIKELY AFTER 00Z WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES, A SQUALL LINE WILL START TO
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND LONG
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE LINE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT LESSER INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY.
..BENTLEY.. 02/13/2025
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