650
ACUS01 KWNS 131947
SWODY1
SPC AC 131947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0147 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
TOWARDS CENTRAL CA. CLEARING BEHIND MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S,
WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE LOW 50S. UPPER LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN 500-MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -22 TO -25 DEG C RANGE,
SUPPORTING WEAK AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS FOR A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE ON TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, WITH THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..SOUTHEAST
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
ALTHOUGH MUCAPE HAS APPROACHED 1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
CONTINUE TO DEPART AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEAST, AND
BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. IN TURN, MIDDAY CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN,
WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS OF WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS, BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING APPEARS TO BE
MINUTE.
..15_OWS.. 02/13/2025
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