893
ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND RELATED COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. BUT, OVERALL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
AS A SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES FROM THE CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODEST, AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THIS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. BUT, STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND RELATED LIFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL, BUT THIS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST.
..GLEASON/BROYLES.. 02/14/2025
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