239
ACUS01 KWNS 141617
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
..SYNOPSIS
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A
100-KT 500MB SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO
NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE
GRADUAL MOISTENING OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL FACILITATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING BUT
MAINLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER EASTERN CO TODAY BUT
EVOLVING INTO WESTERN OK TONIGHT, A COOL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OF
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AS
A RESULT, THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ATOP A COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED BUOYANCY RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE OVER SOUTHEAST OK TO 250 J/KG IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
OVERALL UPDRAFT VIGOR AND THEREBY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL (PERHAPS
LOCALLY SUB SEVERE) WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..SMITH/LYONS.. 02/14/2025
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