663
ACUS03 KWNS 141923
SWODY3
SPC AC 141922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
COASTAL CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.
..CAROLINAS TO NORTH FLORIDA
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, COLD
AIR DAMMING WILL START TO ERODE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY, STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. BY LATE
MORNING, SOME HEATING COULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SQUALL LINE BEFORE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA, SOMEWHAT
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY MAINTAIN A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
FORCING WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 02/14/2025
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