382
FNUS21 KWNS 151548
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT IN THE ELEVATED AREA/VICINITY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RH. NO CHANGES
ARE NECESSARY AND PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..NAUSLAR.. 02/15/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1256 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
MORNING WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 40
MPH ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20-25 MPH (GUSTING AROUND 40-50 MPH) AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT (LOCALLY AS LOW
AS 10%).
THOUGH A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, RECENT FUELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST ERCS ARE LARGELY BELOW
THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A SMALL PORTION OF BIG
BEND AND AREAS WEST OF PECOS RIGHT ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER. THOUGH
FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE DRYING, SMALL OVERLAP OF
SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INCLUDING ANY CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN THE LEE OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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