845
ACUS11 KWNS 160314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160313
KYZ000-TNZ000-160415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...
VALID 160313Z - 160415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN WW009.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN TRANSIENT ROTATION, WITH
INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL AND DAMAGING WIND. WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENTS, STORMS HAVE BEGUN OUTPACING THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, 00Z SOUNDING FROM BNA SHOWS LOW LEVEL CIN AND
POOR DISTRIBUTION OF MLCAPE WITHIN THE PROFILE. ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE, DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING RAPIDLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
45-50 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 600 M2/S2. DESPITE THE DECREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY FAVOR
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND, GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS IN A MORE ELONGATED LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED
MESOVORTEX WITHIN THE LINE MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES.
..THORNTON.. 02/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35188801 35578824 35918799 36288755 36738711 37048675
37148658 37308622 37288560 37008541 36438542 35968606
35528658 35208733 35188801
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