944
ACUS11 KWNS 160541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160540
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF STATES
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
VALID 160540Z - 160745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A
RISK FOR TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...MATURE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
MIDDLE TN-NORTHWEST AL-SOUTHERN MS-SOUTHEAST LA. COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE UNDERCUTTING MUCH OF THIS QLCS, ESPECIALLY FROM MS, AL, INTO
TN. PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE, THUS THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE MODE HAS BEEN MORE LINEAR IN NATURE, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONGLY FORCED BOUNDARY. WHILE QLCS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY MODE, SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE LINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHERN AL.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AT THESE LOWER LATITUDES AND
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ULTIMATELY
EMERGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. IF NOT, DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE QLCS AS IT PROPAGATES STEADILY EAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
..DARROW.. 02/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30589094 32508860 34788731 34428641 32068745 30398955
30589094
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