902
ACUS11 KWNS 160652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160651
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-160845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
VALID 160651Z - 160845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREATS FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA, AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. NEW WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
ONGOING LINE.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, WITH AN ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S F. IN ADDITION, RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW
TO MID-LEVEL JET FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN 65 TO 80
KNOT RANGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS VERY
STRONG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 02/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 34728355 35078390 35238439 35298503 35128586 34488656
33398730 32278817 31678850 31228835 30898805 30648741
30618652 30828569 31678489 32228456 33938362 34728355
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