872
ACUS03 KWNS 160755
SWODY3
SPC AC 160754
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST TX/COASTAL PLAIN VICINITY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS TX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND SOUTHERN LA/MS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONT BECOMING POSITIONED FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW 60S F DEWPOINTS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN LA/MS.
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP ATOP AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BETWEEN 925-850 MB. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED.
NEVERTHELESS, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT
IN ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ABOVE THE EML. MUCAPE AROUND
750-1200 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS WITHIN A FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 02/16/2025
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