966
ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR NORTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, AN EXTENSIVE QLCS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL, SOUTHEAST GA, AND
SC. GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATED WEAK INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT OVER PARTS OF NORTH FL AND VICINITY AHEAD OF THE LINE AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY QUICKLY
DROP OFF WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO GA/SC/NC. STILL, VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS, WITH A 50-70+
KT LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTING AMPLE 0-3 KM SRH. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE TO GRADUALLY OUTPACE
APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. EVEN SO, SCATTERED
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 108 FOR MORE
NEAR-TERM DETAILS.
THE NORTHERN PORTION THIS QLCS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ELEVATED ATOP
A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN NC TO
VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT, IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPINGE ON WEAK
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY LATER IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEASTERN VA. WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS, ANY INTENSIFICATION OF
THE THIN CONVECTIVE LINE MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. EVEN SO, MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL FROM
ROUGHLY NC NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..GLEASON/BROYLES.. 02/16/2025
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