139
ACUS03 KWNS 161924
SWODY3
SPC AC 161923
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, MAINLY
TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AS
IT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THE FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD,
REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA LATE.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER TEXAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, ALONG THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SEPARATING THE
CONTINENTAL/ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE MARITIME/GULF
AIRMASS DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, THE LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION, WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS HAVING SURGED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF TEXAS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AREA, BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
..SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WITH A
COOL/STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RESISTANT TO
EROSION, MOST OF THE DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM THE THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. STILL, ABOVE-SURFACE CAPE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
THOUGH LIKELY NOT TO BEGIN IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER DARK. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX, WITH A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
HAIL. STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT, INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, WITH
CONTINUATION OF LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL RISK. LATE IN THE PERIOD, SOME
EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE AIR MAY OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY YIELD SOME LOW-END TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..GOSS.. 02/16/2025
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