696
ACUS01 KWNS 161950
SWODY1
SPC AC 161949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER.
..20Z UPDATE
WITH A BULK OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST,
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED. WITHIN THE MID-ATLANTIC,
STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY OCCUR EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER HAS SHOWN VERY MODEST
ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. SEE MCD #111 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THIS REGION.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES WERE NOTED NORTHWEST OF THE
TAMPA VICINITY. THOSE CORES HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY
HAVE APPROACHED THE SHORE. THE STRONGEST REMAINING CORES ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE A STRONG GUST OR
TWO MAY OCCUR, COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE LIMITATIONS PRECLUDE AN
EXTENSION OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 02/16/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1009 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
..MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND EASTERN NC
A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST REACHING NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A MID-LEVEL LOW. AN ACCOMPANYING 120-KT 500-MB
JET OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LOW-TOPPED
SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VA SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC AND
NORTHEAST SC. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE PARTS OF
THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. AROUND
250-500 J/KG SBCAPE TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SUPPORT
A MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. STRONGER PORTIONS WITHIN THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
AID IN TRANSPORTING INTENSE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW (60-70 KT AROUND
0.5 KM AGL) TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS
(55-70 MPH). THE SEVERE RISK WILL CEASE AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..NORTH FL
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH FL THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. THE
12 UTC JACKSONVILLE RAOB SHOWED CONSIDERABLE INVERSION AROUND 700 MB
WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY DESPITE DIURNAL
HEATING. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
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