497
FNUS21 KWNS 170558
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW TODAY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO, AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS. THIS WILL PROMOTE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO.
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, ERCS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND THE 50TH-75TH PERCENTILE. ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED, WITH ERCS ALSO NEAR THE
75TH PERCENTILE. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
(GUSTING LOCALLY HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE. HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
HREF SUGGESTS LONGEST DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE TIED TO
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES. AS SUCH, AN
ELEVATED WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK BUT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, FUELS IN THIS REGION ARE
BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED OR CRITICAL AREAS.
..THORNTON.. 02/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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