988
ACUS03 KWNS 171924
SWODY3
SPC AC 171923
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..DISCUSSION
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONCE IT CLEARS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY.
CORRESPONDINGLY, THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
-- WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FOCUS OFF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST BEGINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN GRADUALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM, THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
WITH THE WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES, AND LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO REMAIN WEAK, ONSHORE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND LARGELY DISORGANIZED.
EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE, WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE
DEVELOPMENT, SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY RISK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE CURRENT/APPARENT LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, PRECLUDES
CONSIDERATION OF ANY INCLUSION OF SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
..GOSS.. 02/17/2025
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