640
FNUS21 KWNS 181534
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
BY LAST NIGHT'S MODEL GUIDANCE. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED RECENT
TRENDS WELL AND SUGGESTS COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE GUADELUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 15-25 MPH WINDS WITHIN A DRY,
WELL-MIXED LAYER ABOVE A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THE 12Z EPZ
SOUNDING LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 02/18/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0142 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. DOWNWARD MIXING OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO 15-20
PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH (GUSTING 20-30
MPH). ERCS ARE NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE, HOWEVER, PRIMARILY
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED TO INCLUDE ANY CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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