623
ACUS01 KWNS 181631
SWODY1
SPC AC 181629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT. HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT A BRIEF TORNADO AND OCCASIONAL
SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST.
..SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHERN AZ FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD REACHING NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DELINEATES AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
TX COAST TONIGHT. A MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BASIN
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
TX. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM BY THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE POSING MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
THE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST NEAR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LA COAST. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN A DEEP/SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MODEST, LIKELY
LIMITING TORNADO POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, IF A COUPLE OF STORMS CAN
BECOME NEAR-SURFACE BASED IN THE COASTAL PARISHES, A RISK FOR SEVERE
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
..SMITH.. 02/18/2025
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