299
ACUS11 KWNS 181834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181833
ARZ000-OKZ000-182230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 181833Z - 182230Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE FROM EAST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. DEEPER COLD AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AND A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY. THE 18Z
OBSERVED LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WARM NOSE NEAR 800 MB AS COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDING. SOME
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS, BUT THIS SHOULD SATURATE WITH TIME. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR, SOME MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
APPEAR POSSIBLE. SLEET WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH ANY MORE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED ON THE OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS. INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS,
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION STARTS AND
DIABATICALLY COOLS THE PROFILE. BY EVENING, COLDER AIR SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SNOW WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.
..WENDT.. 02/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 34469189 34349212 34409294 34499327 34619402 34939517
35039546 35199587 35559600 35889608 36179583 35779386
35339200 35159161 34829141 34469189
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