911
ACUS11 KWNS 190001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190001
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 190001Z - 190300Z
SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EVENING. RATES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH TIME, THOUGH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES UP TO 1"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE GRADUAL SHIFT OF SNOWFALL INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, WHERE A PERSISTENT HEAVY BAND EXTENDS, DRIVEN BY 700-850
MB FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TIME, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HEAVIER BANDS WITH OCCASIONAL 1"/HR RATES. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A DOWN TREND IN RATES OVERALL THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN POTENTIAL FOR BETTER RATES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
..THORNTON.. 02/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
LAT...LON 36199081 37389042 37878993 38068914 37978804 37858767
37538701 37378687 36828672 36458661 35628715 35118774
35078876 35158957 35399041 35479063 35929094 36109086
36199081
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