162
ACUS01 KWNS 190538
SWODY1
SPC AC 190536
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FL PENINSULA
AN ORGANIZED QLCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE MS RIVER DELTA
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY 12Z THIS MORNING. 00Z HREF GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS QLCS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOOP CURRENT, WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF. REMNANTS
OF THIS MCS SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA, ROUGHLY
CENTERED ON THE TAMPA BAY AREA AT PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY, POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE A SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OWING TO DAMPENING OF
THE PARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCOMPANYING THE DECAYING MCS, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST ARE POSSIBLE.
..GRAMS/THORNTON.. 02/19/2025
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