851
ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN LA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARDS, AND EVENTUALLY REACH, THE WEST-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
APPROACHES THE FL COAST. THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING, ALONG WITH VARIOUS
NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TAMPA BAY AND
VICINITY, SHOW RATHER POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH SHOULD
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MORE THAN WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND. WHILE
LOW/DEEP-LAYER FLOW APPEARS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG/VERY NEAR THE COAST, THE MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
STILL, AN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUST MAY OCCUR AS THE CLUSTER WEAKENS.
..GLEASON/DEAN.. 02/19/2025
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