112
ACUS01 KWNS 191559
SWODY1
SPC AC 191557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. VISIBLE-SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LINEAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. 12 UTC INITIALIZED
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH EARLIER MODEL DATA IN THE NOTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS AND
APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE LOW/DEEP-LAYER FLOW APPEARS
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/VERY NEAR THE
COAST, THE MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE, COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NON-THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN.
..SMITH/LYONS.. 02/19/2025
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