988
ACUS11 KWNS 191805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191804
NCZ000-SCZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 191804Z - 192300Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ICE ACCRETION AND IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
SHOW A BROAD MOSAIC OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTERACTING WITH A
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. OVER THE LAST
HOUR, SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN FREEZING RAIN RATES AND ICE ACCRETION, AS
PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR-FREEZING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NC AND THE BORDER OF SC. LIKELY TIED TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY FALL BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION (950-800 MB LAYER) AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FROM
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN SC/NC EASTWARD.
WITH TEMPERATURES OF 0.5-2C WITHIN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT, FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER, A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS GRADUALLY
FROM THE NORTH. AREA RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT ACCRETION/IMPACTS IS HIGHEST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER (MID TO UPPER
20S F) AND LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
..LYONS.. 02/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34698024 34768079 35068082 35478034 35907926 36077705
36067694 36057607 35977597 35757619 35377647 34937706
34747782 34327892 34247948 34698024
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