029
FNUS22 KWNS 191849
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
AN ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
AZ AND NORTHWEST NM. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 MPH, AND LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMUM SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20%. FUELS ARE NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW COUPLED WITH 30-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 5-25%
OF NORMAL MAY PROMOTE ADEQUATE DRYING OF FINER FUELS TO SUPPORT A
LOW-END FIRE CONCERN.
..MOORE.. 02/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0150 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ON D2 - THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL US, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE FUELS ARE THE
DRIEST, AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN, COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW.
ACROSS THE WESTERN US, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO, HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK
TO BE LIGHT WHERE FUELS ARE THE DRIEST. THIS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
TO INCLUDE ANY ELEVATED AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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