776
ACUS01 KWNS 211233
SWODY1
SPC AC 211231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS) IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES, WITH THE RESULTING
STABLE CONDITIONS PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS JUST OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST, WHERE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AZ. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THIS LOW, WITH WARM-AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGHOUT ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, KEEPING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ANY WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT
ASHORE.
..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 02/21/2025
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