830
ACUS01 KWNS 221614
SWODY1
SPC AC 221613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE SABINE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
..TX/LA
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF, WITH A WAVE APPARENT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TX.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
WILL RESULT IN WARM-ADVECTION/LIFT AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER TX AND LA COASTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS REGION AND MAY EXPAND THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RISK WESTWARD INTO THE MID/SOUTH TX COAST AS WELL.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS LATE-NIGHT CONVECTION COULD POSE A
RISK OF HAIL, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS LESS CONFIDENT IN THIS
SCENARIO.
..HART/WEINMAN.. 02/22/2025
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