410
FNUS22 KWNS 181957
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS...
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO ACCOUNT FOR OVERLAP OF D1/D2 FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA LIKELY BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVERLAPS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER NEAR THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE CRITICAL AREA WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATED INFORMATION ON FUELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING ACROSS THIS REGION, HOWEVER POST
FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH ERCS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
...WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA, PORTIONS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...
AN ELEVATED DELINEATION WAS ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
APPALACHIANS ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA. A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AMID BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST
FUELS GUIDANCE IN THESE REGIONS SUGGESTS FUELS WILL SUPPORT FIRE
SPREAD.
..THORNTON.. 03/18/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0202 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE REGIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COOL, BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NM INTO OK AND TX. TEMPERATURE REDUCTIONS WILL BE
MUTED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF RH MINIMUMS
BETWEEN 15-25% FROM EASTERN NM TO EASTERN TX. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION, A
LINGERING BELT OF 20-30 MPH WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL PROMOTE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE BY MID-AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS REGION SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, THOUGH CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS MAY EMERGE AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MORE BROADLY ACROSS TX, WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME OFF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF KY, WV, OH,
AND PA. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
EXPANSIVE, THE ELEVATED RISK AREA IS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RELATIVELY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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