205
ACUS11 KWNS 190938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190937
ILZ000-IAZ000-191130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IA INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190937Z - 191130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED
FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA, AIDED BY ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
POWERFUL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS KS, AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT, ASSUMING A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
UPDRAFT. SOME TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR PRODUCTION OF SMALL TO ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL, AS
NOTED EARLIER NORTH OF OMAHA. LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED CELLS.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 03/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42609501 43149325 42999171 41919009 40439084 41449350
41949503 42189528 42609501
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