033
ACUS11 KWNS 192157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192156
INZ000-ILZ000-192330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO WESTERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 57...
VALID 192156Z - 192330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 57 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO
WATCH 57, WITH THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARING
MOST LIKELY OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS IN A NORTH-SOUTH ZONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS ZONE, MODEST CAPE BUT STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS, AND WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH IN THE LOW 50S, STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH -- I.E. EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INTO WESTERN INDIANA -- SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT, WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS PREVALENT. HERE TOO,
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT (SURFACE
TO 1 KM SHEAR 35 KT AT THIS TIME IS INDICATED AT IND). THESE TWO
FACTORS SUGGEST THAT GREATEST TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WW MAY EXIST
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
WITH TIME, OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NEW WW -- OR WW EXTENSIONS -- WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED INTO MORE OF INDIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..GOSS.. 03/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39378817 40248812 40818712 40668631 39798577 38998594
38498729 38658853 39378817
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