119
ACUS11 KWNS 192225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192224
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 58...
VALID 192224Z - 200030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 58 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...VERY GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION, COOLING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER
THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SLOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THUS FAR, A COMBINATION OF STEADILY
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS) AND
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY. BUOYANCY
WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER (AROUND 500
J/KG MLCAPE), BUT LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH IS
BOLSTERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWPS. THIS
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LIMITED
BUOYANCY AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE
CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. GIVEN NEARLY 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
AND 50-60 KNOT FLOW SAMPLED WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM, SEVERE GUSTS
AND TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
..MOORE.. 03/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 36858879 37378858 38198811 38398792 38508771 38588640
38528602 38358581 37938585 37668601 37368625 37138646
37058674 36698840 36728869 36788878 36858879
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