125
ACUS11 KWNS 200056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200056
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-200300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 58...
VALID 200056Z - 200300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 58 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KY INTO WESTERN TN. WEAK
STORM MOTIONS OFF THE BOUNDARY ARE FAVORING SLOW UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS, BUT SEVERAL SHALLOW, BUT
INTENSIFYING, DISCRETE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE. THE DEEPER/MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES, SUGGESTING THAT
THEY ARE BEGINNING TO REALIZE THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
RECENT VWP OBSERVATIONS FROM KOHX SHOW 1-2 KM WINDS INCREASING TO
60-70 KNOTS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MIDDLE TN IS LIKELY ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT AS
STORMS MOVE NORTH INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/HIGHER SRH
ENVIRONMENT THEY MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND POSE A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THE COMING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL KY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN. TO THE WEST, THE CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY FAVOR AND INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR QUICKLY ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING BUOYANCY WILL OFFSET THIS
POTENTIAL.
..MOORE.. 03/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36528818 37178769 38008719 38248680 38378617 38228573
37948565 37468573 36908581 36418606 36058633 35818668
35638706 35738752 35848785 36028812 36208823 36528818
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