480
FNUS21 KWNS 200537
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ALBEIT MORE SPATIALLY CONFINED
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY. IT ITS WAKE, SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS
(15-35% RH) LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
..HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AN APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
WAVE WILL BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING IN
MODEST LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTANT
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD FOSTER SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WINDS
REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, BUT SUCH WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST TX AND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE NE PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S, COUPLED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY FUELS - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NM AND TX WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MINIMAL - SHOULD
SUPPORT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL CO WHERE DRY/DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT RECENT SNOWFALL SHOULD LIMIT FUEL STATUS.
..FLORIDA
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRE-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SOUTH FL IN MID-MARCH,
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH MID-50S DEWPOINTS, SHOULD RESULT IN RH
VALUES BETWEEN 20-35% BY PEAK HEATING. DESPITE SOME RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS, RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY INDICATES THAT FUELS WILL
SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WARMEST/DRIEST, BUT MAY SPREAD FURTHER INLAND AND NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FL PRIOR TO THE LATE-AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..LOUISIANA COAST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE TEMPORAL OVERLAP OF BREEZY WINDS AND RH
MINIMUMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, THOUGH AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE LA
COAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MS RIVER, INCLUDING EASTERN AR WHERE
NOTABLE FIRE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY
RAIN SWATHS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE 3/14 TO 3/15 PERIOD.
..MOORE.. 03/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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