284
ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING, AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F,
IS FORECAST FROM EAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING, AS A 50 TO 60 KNOT JET
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS THE OZARKS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z ON SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HAVE A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION BELOW 850
MB. ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, MUCAPE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE, WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ELEVATED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
MORE UNCERTAIN, SUGGESTING THAT A SEVERE THREAT THERE IS MORE
CONDITIONAL.
..BROYLES.. 03/20/2025
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