500
ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2025
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
..EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS A RESULT OF ONLY
PARTIAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND POOR TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
MOISTENING FOR VERY WEAK BUOYANCY (100-200 J/KG MLCAPE) AND
CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES IN A
BAND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE, THE VERY WEAK
BUOYANCY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE ADDITION OF SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES.
..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 03/20/2025
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